🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market Trader Earned $Nearly Half a Million from Bets Predicting Venezuela's Political Shift. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor made nearly half a million dollars by predicting the removal of Nicolás Maduro just before it was publicly declared, raising questions about potential gains made from inside knowledge of the US operation. Sudden Shift in Forecasts Wagers on Polymarket, a blockchain-based service, that Nicolás Maduro would be out of power by the close of the month increased in the hours before Donald Trump declared on Saturday that the president had been seized. One account, which became a member last month and took four positions, all on political events in Venezuela, earned over $nearly half a million from a modest bet of $32,537. Who placed the bet is a mystery. This unidentified trader had only a cryptographic address for identification. Probability Spikes Before Public Statement Trading information shows that traders put the odds of Maduro's exit at just under 7% in the midday period of Friday, January 2nd. However these probabilities had jumped to over 10% by shortly before midnight and skyrocketed in the early hours of Saturday, suggesting a rapid movement in betting activity right before the public announcement was made. "This specific wager has all the characteristics of a transaction based on confidential knowledge," said Dennis Kelleher. A handful of other platform users also earned large payouts from predicting the capture. Legal Questions Emerges Elected officials are growing concerned. A new rule presented on the start of the week aims to prohibit public officials from participating on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a market. The Prediction Market Landscape Prediction markets have surged in popularity in recent years, with participants able to bet on everything from sports to political events. Prediction markets faced scrutiny under the last presidential term. However it has experienced less resistance during the present political climate. Insider trading is illegal in the securities markets, but there are fewer regulations in the prediction market arena. An official representative for Kalshi said their site "explicitly prohibits such activities of any form."