Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity afforded by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
